Assembly elections were recently held in five states including Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. After winning, AAP has formed the government in Punjab, while BJP has come to power in the remaining four states including Uttar Pradesh. Results for Punjab were of course quite unexpected. Even in case of Uttar Pradesh it cannot be said that the results were completely on expected lines. Proving all experts wrong, the two main contenders for power in Punjab –Congress and Akali Dal were swept away by the AAP wave. In UP, experts, in general, had predicted a close fight between BJP and SP led alliances. Some journalists, who cannot be accused of being biased towards SP, even had predicted a clean sweep for SP. But events did not unfold as predicted by them. Though it won a few seats less than the previous elections, BJP not only did manage to win by a comfortable majority, it was also able to increase its vote percentage. BJP also did not face any problem in forming governments in other three states.
Even at the risk of being repetitive, it is necessary to mention some relevant points here. As a representative of the advanced, revolutionary section of working class, we are only interested in the development of class struggle. In the bourgeois parliamentary system, the vast majority of the toiling mass, including the workers and the peasants participate in the elections with the hope of improving their living conditions within this system. The search for the path of emancipation from this oppressive, exploitative system does not govern their decision to cast votes for a particular party. Now in this situation, when the class party of the working class is absent, when the class conscious army of workers is practically absent or very small and weak, the peasants and other toiling masses, even the workers, do not participate in elections from their class position. Many a time, their identity as a member of any particular religious community, or a particular nationality or caste becomes bigger than their class identity. These identities become determining factors for their decision to support a particular party in elections. For this reason, the class consciousness of workers is practically not expressed through these election results, even their spontaneous discontentment or anger against this system remains buried under various bourgeois thoughts. Consequently, it will be a big mistake to look for the possibility of manifestations of real class aspirations of the workers and toiling masses in these election results. Still, since these bourgeois elections are also political struggles and workers and toiling people participate in these elections more or less from their independent thinking, so an expression of those thinking are somewhat manifested through these elections. At the same time, the policies of various bourgeois parties contending in elections are also reflected from their election propaganda.
During election campaigns, different newspapers reported of a massive resentment of the poor toiling people against the BJP government led by Yogi Adityanath in UP. There was anger against the failure of the government to provide healthcare to the common people during the second wave of the pandemic. Anger against the lack of any active role of the government regarding daily problems like unemployment, price rise/inflation, etc, was also present. Besides this, during its later period, the farmers’ movement had also considerably spread to Western Uttar Pradesh. Maha Panchayats were held in many places. A large number of farmers belonging to both communities rallied in large numbers in this mahapanchayats, overcoming to a certain extent the Hindu-Muslim divide created by the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. Despite these facts, BJP not only won the elections, it also succeeded in increasing its vote percentage from 39.7% in 2017 to 41.3% now, although they won less seats (255 seats vis a vis 312 in 2017). What are the causes behind this phenomenon?
Undoubtedly, in the absence of any organisation of the working class worth its name, it is very difficult to comprehend the direction of the thoughts of the workers and toiling people only from newspaper reports. From the past history of UP politics, we may only point out broadly some probable causes behind this victory of BJP.
Firstly, there is no doubt that aggressive Hindutva politics played a significant role in this victory of BJP, though during the election campaigns, it was not expressed prominently. The communal polarization that BJP and Sangh Parivar have successfully created throughout India, and especially in Uttar Pradesh, since the last few decades, made a huge impact in this election too. We have to remember that the disputed land of Babri Masjid has been granted for the construction of Ram Janmabhumi temple by a Supreme Court verdict during BJP’s present tenure. BJP projected this verdict of Supreme Court and the beginning of the construction of RamJanmabhumi temple as their great victory, which makes it easy to understand the huge impact this could have upon the Hindu population of UP. Sure enough, various post election surveys indicated that BJP had been successful in creating a clear division along communal lines and had been able to consolidate majority of Hindu voters in their favour.
Questions may arise: is this communal division is something new? The polarization had started long ago, since the laying of the foundation stone of the RamJanmabhumi temple. Despite this polarisation, BJP had to sit in the opposition for quite a long period How come they could not acquire power based on divisive politics back then, but are able to do so now?
It may be recalled that back then BJP did not succeed in garnering the votes of OBC and Dalit population. That was one of the primary causes for BJP’s failure in consolidating the Hindu voters on the basis of communal politics back then. However, changes occurred after 2014. Apart from the Jatav caste, a dalit caste from which BSP mainly derives its strength, BJP had begun to attract the organisations of other dalit castes towards itself. A considerable section of Dalits supported BJP this time. Both the vote percentage and number of seats of Mayawati’s BSP have decreased. In 2017, BSP had acquired 22.23% of votes, whereas this time it was only 12.88%, a reduction of nearly 10%. Also, this time around, the number of seats won by BSP is only 1 as compared to 19 in 2017. Post election surveys point to the fact that a large portion of these votes went to BJP’s kitty. If not so, it will be impossible to explain this increase in votes of BJP.
How did BJP manage to attract a large section of Dalit’s votes? The previous few elections show that BSP or SP could not draw the votes of the lower castes depending solely on caste contradictions and divisions. Improvement in the quality of their lives have become an important question for these sections. The SP or BSP were losing their support because they had noticed that during SP or BSP governments’ tenure, neither had their lives improved, nor the caste oppressions alleviated. To add salt to the wound, BSP had formed pacts with Brahmins during its tenure. These incidents coupled with glittering slogans of Modi like ‘Achhe Din’, ‘Sab ka Vikas’, etc, drew them towards BJP. Various electoral surveys suggested that even during these elections, the activity of providing little doles in the ruse of development to the lower section of the population, acted as big catalysts in attracting Dalit people’s votes towards BJP. The majority of Dalit population are very poor. By dint of being poor and oppressed as Dalits, government activities of distribution of food items like rice, wheat through PDS, providing free cooking gas connections, construction of houses through “Awas Yojna’, etc, have all played a significant role in attracting this section towards BJP.
To tell the truth, it is an established fact that since the previous few elections, almost all political parties are dishing out similar doles and promises to attract the poor masses. These kinds of activities are gaining importance for winning elections, especially, for attracting the poor population. In West Bengal too, we have seen how similar welfare activities like ‘SasthyaSathi, ‘KhadyaSathi’ etc., were significant causes for TMC’s victory. Are these government reliefs sufficient to alleviate the problems of the poor people? No. Are the governments really doling out more than what these people deserve? Surely, no. These doles and reliefs are way too little in comparison to how much their fruits of labour are directly appropriated on one hand and on the other, indirectly through taxes and exorbitant rise in prices of essential items.The governments are projecting themselves as ‘great saviours’ by giving back a very miniscule amount of the wealth appropriated from these toiling people. But, due to absence of struggle, the poor toiling people, are incapable of seeing through the sham of doles given by the governments.. As they are not conscious of their rights, these petty doles appear as something big. The parties which are throwing such petty doles to the poor toiling people, are becoming messiah to them and getting the support of poor people in the elections. Only struggle can broaden the horizon about the limits to their rights and clear their perspective of the oppressive system. Till then, the parliamentary political parties will continue to deceive the majority of the backward masses by confining them within the politics of doles and reliefs only as long as it does not pose a big threat to the economic interests of the big capitalists.
Apparently it may appear that the peasant movement had no major influence over this election. Apart from the sugarcane producing areas in and around Muzaffarnagar, where the farmers were actively involved in the last struggle, BJP had done remarkably well in all of Western UP. How did this happen? BJP government’s decision to revoke the three black farm laws acted remarkably in favour of them. Sensing that the continuation of farmers’ movement and also, the conflicts between BJP led govts at centre and as well as of Haryana and UP with the farmers would pose a big threat to BJP in the elections, the central leadership of BJP repealed the farm laws suddenly and the decision has given them big dividends. Nevertheless, the farmer’s movement did leave its mark. BJP did not fare well in and around Muzaffarnagar. Three BJP MLA’s, who played a major role in organizing the 2013 riots –Sangeet Som, Umesh Malik and Suresh Rana have all lost. BJP won in only 4 out of 12 seats in Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat and Shamli where they had won in 10 seats in the previous elections. In Meerut, they got only 3 out of 7 seats, whereas last time it was 6 out of 7. We can say that the influence of the Hindu-Muslim unity forged through the farmer’s movement is still restricted and not strong enough to resist the hindutva politics of BJP-SanghParivar. It will not be able to resist aggressive hindutva politics until and unless a class conscious army of the working class is formed through class struggles and a unity of workers and toiling people develops under their leadership.
Lastly, we have to mention two more causes without which it may not be fully possible to understand BJP’s victory. Firstly, the Modi factor. Though the hysteria created by Narendra Modi by infusing false hopes among the backward masses with slogans like ‘Achhe din’ in 2014 had died down somewhat due to the experiences of the past 7-8 years, the charisma and hype still surrounding Modi cannot be disregarded. It was reflected even during this election.
Secondly, there is no alternative to BJP in parliamentary politics right now. The people have abundant experiences of the opposition parliamentary political parties in power. Their corruption, strong-arm tactics, nepotism, lack of principles and above all anti people policies are the principal causes for turning towards BJP. This is why, though resentment against BJP is increasing, it is not translating into support for these political parties everywhere. This was partly reflected in UP elections, but seen more in Punjab. The way the people of Punjab whitewashed Congress and Akali Dal and favoured AAP, clearly showed that they cannot trust the opposition political parties. This, however, does not imply that there are no possibilities of the local parties developing into BJP’s alternatives anymore. The anti people policies of BJP in states where they are in power, will invariably give rise to more anger and resentment against them and this anger will be reflected in parliamentary politics by favouring these opposition political parties.
These are the causes for BJP’s victory in Assembly elections. This victory has increased BJP’s morale tremendously. Consequently, BJP and Sangh Parivar will execute their aggressive hindutva politics with vehemence in the days to come. Two significant events have occurred right after the declaration of results. First, in Karnataka, the High Court ruled in favour of the government’s decision in the Hijab controversy case– Muslim girls cannot wear hijab to schools and colleges in Karnataka. Second –UP High Court has accepted a plea urging to move an Eidgah in close proximity to Krishna Janmabhumi temple in Mathura to elsewhere. Undoubtedly, these issues will be exploited by BJP to increase communal divisions and create pressure on the Muslim community in various ways. Such indications are apparent in BJP ruled states. The Muslim traders are being forced to stop selling of Halal meats or trading in the vicinity of the temples in Karnataka. Muslim traders and small businessmen will surely face a crisis because of this. In Delhi, some municipalities issued orders to close all meat and fish selling shops for a week during Navratri. Hoodlums of ABVP forcibly stopped non-veg meals in hostel mess of JNU, leading to a huge uproar and violence. But the most alarming incident occurred in Madhya Pradesh. Here, the Muslim community is being made responsible unilaterally for riots surrounding a Ram Navami procession, and many houses have been razed to the ground with bulldozers on the pretext of extracting compensations for property destruction during the riots. The same thing has been repeated in Jahangarpuri in Delhi. The purpose of this aggressive politics of BJP-Sangh Parivar is not only to organize Hindu population and win elections, its real purpose is the establishment of a Hindu State, which at present, is advancing through parliamentary means. In short, this fascist expedition of BJP-RSS is going to surge forward with increased strength.
On the other hand, BJP's influence in parliamentary politics is also gradually increasing. The big bourgeois are jubilant because this implies that Modi and BJP government will face fewer hurdles in the path of aggressive reforms. Their media are already advising Modi to accelerate the reforms. The attacks of the government -- the ruling big bourgeois against the workers and toiling people are gaining momentum and will only get worse in the future. These aggressions will only serve to increase the anger and resentment of the workers and toiling masses and will aid in shattering the hype surrounding Modi. It is true that this process is progressing slowly due to lack of struggles. But if this accelerates in future, the quest for a new path among the working class will also be augmented. In essence, while on the one hand the ruling class is gradually leaning towards right, on the other hand possibilities of new struggles emanating from the workers and peasants are getting stronger.
Perhaps, it will not be irrelevant to reiterate that BJP’s victory in elections does not signify that the anger and resentment of the working class and toiling people will not be expressed through struggles. Conversely, we have already mentioned that the possibility of such a thing happening will only increase. However, the possibility of the development of the struggle of the working class is directly related to the building up of organization of the leading section of the workers by overcoming the effects of defeat. Moreover, the increasing aggression of the ruling class will also increase the chances of spontaneous resistance from the working class and the toiling masses. Those who dreamed of defeating the fascist BJP by uniting a few organizations with the slogan 'No Vote to BJP' in Uttar Pradesh as well as in West Bengal like in West Bengal must realize that the real way to counter the onslaught of the ruling class is on the battlefield of class struggle.
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